Businessweek
Q4 2024
Illustrations by Nick Little for Bloomberg Businessweek
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Following our list of 50 Companies to Watch in January and quarterly updates, here are 10 names you should know about—for better or worse—specifically for the fourth quarter. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have dug into their scenarios to identify the most interesting companies, part of a larger group of high-confidence Focus Ideas that BI identifies on an ongoing basis. Each scenario outlines an important catalyst coming in the next few months that supports our case.
For more information on Bloomberg Intelligence, please visit www.bloomberg.com/bi
Alstom
Outlook ☀️
Cash flow at the train and tram maker is starting to recover from last year’s surprising loss and has the potential to exceed expectations by more than 20% through 2027. Spurred in part by orders for the new European Train Control System, which will replace incompatible sytems across European Union countries, signaling and service sales growth is set to surpass analysts’ consensus estimates. —Omid Vaziri
Data Sheet
Market cap $9.2B
Estimated 2024 sales $18.5B
Forecast sales growth 11%
CEO Henri Poupart-Lafarge
Legal name Alstom SA
Triggers
- Results for the fiscal first half, due in November, will likely show an acceleration in new, high-margin orders and improvement in cash flow and inventory trends.
Anta Sports
Outlook ☀️
The sportswear and accessory maker’s profit margin is likely to expand in 2024, even as analysts’ consensus is predicting a decline on concerns about negative Chinese consumer sentiment. The company is controlling its inventories well, reducing the risk of price cuts on unsold merchandise, and its Kolon Sport and Descente brands are seeing improvements in sales. —Catherine Lim
Data Sheet
Market cap $28B
Estimated 2024 sales $9.9B
Forecast sales growth 13%
Chairman/executive director/co-founder Shizhong Ding
Legal name Anta Sports Products Ltd.
Triggers
- October’s sales results should show strong demand for Summer Olympics-related merchandise and a rise in contribution from full-priced items.
Direct Line
Outlook ☁️
The insurer has a new CEO and a revamped senior management team working to restore profitability in its core auto-coverage business, but market expectations look too optimistic: UK insurance pricing is weakening, and consensus earnings for next year don’t reflect that. —Kevin Ryan
Data Sheet
Market cap $3.2B
Estimated 2024 sales $4.5B
Forecast sales growth -1%
CEO Adam Winslow
Legal name Direct Line Insurance Group Plc
Triggers
- Data released in October from Confused.com, a key online comparison site for insurance, should show a third straight quarter of falling prices.
First Solar
Outlook ☀️
The US solar panel producer is finding bright spots in a market experiencing a global supply glut. With the Inflation Reduction Act spurring US demand, and trade restrictions effectively limiting supplies from Asian competitors, First Solar is set to exceed expectations even as profits for Chinese producers fall. —Rob Barnett
Data Sheet
Market cap $27B
Estimated 2024 sales $4.5B
Forecast sales growth 35%
CEO Mark Widmar
Legal name First Solar Inc.
Triggers
- Sales growth and profit margins should be strong in third-quarter results that are expected in October, and the US election could bring changes to trade and energy policies.
Insulet
Outlook ☀️
Recent US Food and Drug Administration clearance for an insulin pump aimed at treating Type 2 diabetes should extend the device’s momentum, with sales on track to jump by about 20% this year. The product, the first wearable automated insulin-delivery system, is already gaining share among patients with Type 1 diabetes. —Matt Henriksson
Data Sheet
Market cap $17B
Estimated 2024 sales $2B
Forecast sales growth 19%
President/CEO Jim Hollingshead
Legal name Insulet Corp.
Triggers
- Third-quarter results in early November will likely show revenue growth from sales to Type 2 patients.
Japan Exchange
Outlook ☀️
Global attention to Japanese markets is increasing, with many pundits declaring the end of the economy’s “Lost Decades.” This is spurring strong trading activity across stocks, bonds and derivative products at the securities’ exchange. Consensus upgrades haven’t kept pace, and positive surprises should continue. —Sharnie Wong
Data Sheet
Market cap $13B
Estimated 2024 sales $1.1B
Forecast sales growth 7%
Representative executive officer/CEO Hiromi Yamaji
Legal name Japan Exchange Group Inc.
Triggers
- Fiscal first-half results scheduled for October are poised to demonstrate strong sales and earnings momentum.
LG Chem
Outlook ☁️
Weakness in China’s property market is reverberating through the supply chain, driving down sales of consumer and construction plastics, while weaker US demand for electric vehicles is also hitting the petrochemical maker’s battery unit. The consensus of analysts’ expectations doesn’t fully reflect these challenges, and profits could fall short by more than 20% this year. —Vivien Zheng
Data Sheet
Market cap $18B
Estimated 2024 sales $38B
Forecast sales growth -10%
Vice chairman/CEO Shin Hak-Cheol
Legal name LG Chem Ltd.
Triggers
- Third-quarter results in October are at risk of missing expectations because of sluggish EU and US electric-vehicle demand and more intense Chinese EV competition.
Saudi National Bank
Outlook ☀️
Expected central bank policy rate cuts will create a profit challenge for most banks, but Saudi National’s profit margins should improve, given longer-oriented loans and declining deposit costs. Falling interest rates would also likely accelerate loan growth. Taken together, profits could jump 15% or more in the coming year. —Edmond Christou
Data Sheet
Market cap $57B
Estimated 2024 sales $9.7B
Forecast sales growth 6%
CEO Tareq Abdulrahman Al-Sadhan
Legal name Saudi National Bank
Triggers
- Management is expected to comment on the implications of central bank rate cuts in its October results.
Synopsys
Outlook ☀️
The electronic design automation company’s planned $33 billion acquisition of simulation software provider Ansys faces antitrust scrutiny, and investors are concerned the deal will be blocked. But the takeover is likely to win approval eventually, which would boost the company’s outlook. If the deal is greenlighted, Ansys’ 14% share price discount to Synopsys’ bid should close. —Niraj Patel and Jennifer Rie
Data Sheet
Market cap $78B
Estimated 2024 sales $6.3B
Forecast sales growth 4%
President/CEO Sassine Ghazi
Legal name Synopsys Inc.
Triggers
- Competition watchdogs in both the US and the UK will likely either clear the deal or start a full review in the fourth quarter.
Trulieve
Outlook ☀️
The cannabis producer and distributor’s earnings could soar to new highs if Florida legalizes marijuana for recreational use, given about 70% of the company’s dispensaries, currently only for medical marijuana, are in the state. Pennsylvania and Arizona are also important markets for Trulieve. Federal reclassification of the drug would offer an even bigger boost, but that would likely require a Democratic sweep in the November elections. —Ken Shea
Data Sheet
Market cap $2.9B
Estimated 2024 sales $1.2B
Forecast sales growth 6%
Chairman/CEO/founder Kim Rivers
Legal name Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
Triggers
- In a referendum in November, Florida voters will weigh in on the legalization of recreational pot.
*Sales figures are for 2024.
*Market value as of Sept. 24, 2024.